Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.