‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Availability.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as anxieties over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are adopting solid fuels and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In a western metro, accounts say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their fuel reserves have dwindled with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of home fuel subscribers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict affect energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the caption reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be exaggerated.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Kitchen Fuel: The Primary Concern

The key weakness is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only raise domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.